ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had a simple message Wednesday for Auburn fans optimistic about the Tigers’ chances for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Stop it.

Auburn, winners of seven of its last eight and currently in the midst of its best season since 2002-03, will have to sweep through next week’s SEC Tournament in Tampa if it plans on going to a postseason tournament not called the NIT, Lunardi said Wednesday in a conference call with reporters across the country.

“I’m not looking seriously at Auburn,” Lunardi said. “I don’t think anybody who has watched the bulk of the SEC this year, particularly the West, could really make a quantitative or a qualitative argument for that.”

And that’s saying something.

Lunardi invented the ESPN-dubbed science of “bracketology” and is considered to have a “Ph.D.” in the subject. His track record backs that up, however, as he’s been projecting the NCAA men’s basketball tournament field since 1997 — ESPN.com’s inception.

Since then, the Philadelphia native and color analyst for St. Joseph’s men’s basketball has picked a wrong team to make the field just 10 times, including a perfect 65-for-65 effort in 2008.

Bottom line: He’s good, which means Auburn’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tournament are not.

The Tigers have already wrapped up second place in the SEC West and a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament. If they defeat No. 12 LSU on Saturday at Beard-Eaves-Memorial Coliseum, they will finish 10-6 in the SEC and 9-3 in their final 12 games — a criterion taken into consideration by the NCAA selection committee.

Since the SEC reduced its conference schedule to 16 games for the 1991-92 season, no 10-6 SEC team has been left out of the Big Dance.
Auburn, Lunardi said, will be the first.

“I think that’s one of those historic things that doesn’t matter this year because every year is its own entity,” Lunardi said. “I don’t think 10-6 means anything this year in the SEC, particularly in the West ... That string is likely to be broken.”

Lunardi said the selection committee will not be naive enough to look past the fact that, of Auburn’s last seven wins, only one (Tennessee) came against a lock for the NCAA Tournament.

“I think it’s a pretty arbitrary consideration,” Lunardi said. “They’re smart enough to know that I could be 6-6 playing all ranked teams and you could be 10-2 playing the bottom of your league because that’s the way your schedule fell.”

Auburn’s weak RPI (72), average strength of schedule (82nd in the nation), lack of wins over top 50 RPI teams (one, against Tennessee) and a historically down year for the SEC all contribute to the Tigers’ slim-to-none chances of earning an at-large bid.

Also, the competition among “bubble” teams is quite steep this season, as a glut of teams considered “out” by Lunardi have much better RPI’s. Lunardi does not have Auburn on his list of bubble teams, which currently numbers 20.

He’s not alone in his thoughts, either.

Jerry Palm, another NCAA Tournament brackets guru and the founder of CollegeRPI.com, posted a special message on his Web site Wednesday morning regarding Auburn’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

“I can’t answer my phone or check my e-mail without getting a question about Auburn, and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why,” Palm wrote. “The Tigers are a slightly above average team in the weaker division of a below average major conference. They have a one-point win at home over Tennessee, and that’s it.

“Yes, the Tigers have won seven of eight, but other than Tennessee, the wins have come over the other league punching bags. There’s nothing to see here, folks. Move along, please.”

Of course, all this talk will be for naught if Auburn wins all three of its games next weekend in Tampa — even if it slips up Saturday against LSU.

“It’s always the team’s best chance to get the automatic,” Lunardi said, “because it takes the human element out of it.”

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