Vasha Hunt | Opelika-Auburn News
Auburn running back Onterio McCalebb has potential for a breakout year, even with his second-string status.
EDITOR’S NOTE: In the week leading up to the start of Auburn’s fall practice, the Opelika-Auburn News will examine the questions surrounding this year’s team.
Today’s question: Who are this year’s Cam Newton?
Nobody.
Nobody on Auburn’s roster is going to have the type of breakout season that elevated Cam Newton to the status of a consensus All-American, Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
But there is room for some of the Tigers’ current players to make a markedly more meaningful contribution than they have in the past, especially with all the question marks facing the team.
Philip Lutzenkirchen is a popular choice.
The Tigers have already stated a desire to get the 6-foot-4, 264-pound junior tight end involved in the passing game more, and the fact that he was a 1,000-yard receiver in high school – and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn produced a 1,000-yard receiving H-back at Tulsa – makes it seem like it could be a possibility.
But let’s consider Onterio McCalebb for a minute.
As a freshman, McCalebb shared secondary back duty with Mario Fannin, missed two games to a leg injury after a … questionable fake punt call against Ball State and still finished with 565 yards and four touchdowns.
The talk going into last year was that McCalebb had figured out his turning-the-corner problem. He could now keep his feet under him once he got to the outside, not get ahead of himself and book it to the end zone.
He showed that time and again last season, rushing 95 times for 810 yards – a nation-best 8.5 yards per carry – and nine touchdowns, or a score every 10.6 times he carried the ball.
The buzz surrounding McCalebb this offseason is he has bulked up a bit, worked on his durability and is not afraid to do some dirty work inside the tackles.
McCalebb rushed 9.5 times a game as the “2a” to Fannin’s “2b” behind Ben Tate in 2009.
He carried 6.8 times per game as Auburn’s third option behind Dyer and Cam Newton last year.
As the Tigers’ solid second option behind Dyer this season – and if his increase in durability is to be believed – how many chances will McCalebb get?
In two years under Gene Chizik, Malzahn and Co., the Tigers’ top rushing option has averaged 19.5 carries per game.
Take away the 23 times Newton was sacked last year and the number drops to 18.7. But the bottom line is Auburn’s No. 1 back will run 18-20 times a game.
The No. 2 back – Dyer last season and McCalebb/Fannin in ’09 – has averaged 12.3 carries a game over the past two years, 10.6 in ’09 and 13.8 last year.
Given the experience gap between McCalebb and whoever winds up No. 3 this year, he’ll probably border closer to Dyer’s use last year than the use he and Fannin experienced two years ago.
And, even though Barrett Trotter and Clint Moseley are more fleet of foot than Chris Todd, they still won’t be taking many carries from the Tigers’ backs.
If McCalebb averages the number of carries Auburn’s No. 2 backs have for the past two years, it will put him around 150 rushes on the year.
McCalebb has averaged 6.9 yards a carry in his two years at Auburn, 5.6 as a freshman and 8.5 last year.
With the Tigers’ inexperienced line, there’s no way the 8.5 will duplicate. But if he averages anywhere between his low (5.6) and his average (6.9) over 150 carries, he’s looking at anywhere from 840 to 1,035 yards.
Obviously, all of this is purely hypothetical at this point.
Injuries, performance drop-offs, freshmen maturing quickly, any number of things could place McCalebb anywhere from feature back to obsolete in the Tigers’ plans this year.
But, if his past performances hold – and Auburn keeps distributing its carries like it has – McCalebb could be in line for a breakout year, even if he remains Dyer’s backup.